The president gave Iran a choice at the UN and oil fell five days in a row
The Daily Digest
Dark Bulls
Wednesday · September 23, 2026
Brent fell below $98 for the first time since the war began. Trump told the UN he'll annihilate Iran or make a deal — but not before the midterms. Kushner and Witkoff met with Iranian officials and called it "very good." China expelled two more generals. The Steelers got blown out. And Judge Sullivan is waiting on Blanche.
Wednesday. Oil broke below $98 on a five-day diplomatic streak — the most sustained relief at the pump since the Iran war began in February. Trump's UNGA speech was the defining moment of the week: annihilate or deal, but not until after November. Kushner met with Iranians. Khamenei said no. Pezeshkian speaks today. China's military purge hit two more generals. The NFL produced a Week 3 full of surprises. And the Epstein clock ran to 11am. Let's get into it.
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Up to $6,000 per person. Up to $12,000 for a married couple when both spouses are 65+.
It covers tax years 2025 through 2028. After that, it's scheduled to disappear.
Here's the catch. The deduction starts shrinking once your modified adjusted gross income passes $75,000, or $150,000 if you file jointly. It's gone completely at $175,000, or $250,000 joint.
And your RMD counts toward that income.
A $1 million IRA at age 73 means a first RMD of roughly $38,000. Add Social Security and other income, and a couple can land right in the range where the deduction shrinks.
You can't skip the RMD. You can plan around it.
If you have $500K or more saved for retirement, a free quiz can connect you with a fiduciary advisor who can talk through how your RMDs, this deduction, and the rest of your taxes fit together.
About 3 minutes. About 8 questions.
Your actual tax impact depends on your income sources, filing status, and state. You can verify any advisor on FINRA BrokerCheck or at adviserinfo.sec.gov.
📈 Money & Markets
Brent crude fell below $98 for the first time since the Iran war began — as diplomacy at UNGA kept oil in a five-day slide and gas prices started to ease at the pump.
Market Pulse · Sept 23, 2026
$97.84
▼ Brent Crude
Below $98 first time
5 days
▼ Oil decline
From $108 high
↑ S&P
▲ Markets rise
Energy sector falls
$4.22
▼ Avg. Gas
Down from $4.36
Brent crude fell below $98 a barrel Tuesday — the first time the price has been that low since the Iran war began on February 28. The five-day decline from last week's $108 high represents the largest sustained oil price drop since the conflict started, and it is almost entirely driven by the diplomatic signal coming out of New York. Trump said at the UN he expects a deal with Iran — after the midterms. Kushner and Witkoff met with Iranian officials on the sidelines and described it as "a very good meeting." Oil markets are pricing in the possibility that the war's most economically disruptive phase may be ending.
The practical effect is already showing at the pump. The national average for regular gasoline fell to $4.22 Tuesday according to AAA — down from last week's $4.36 high. That is still historically elevated, but the direction has changed. Energy analysts project that if Brent holds below $100 through the end of the month, gas prices could fall below $4.00 in early October for the first time since June. For households that have been paying war-era energy prices since March, that would represent the first real inflation relief of the fall. The S&P 500 rose Tuesday while the energy sector fell — the classic market read on lower oil.
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I believe we'll make a deal right after the election because it doesn't make sense for them not to. They're waiting to see how I do in the midterm election. What they don't realize is that I'm not running.
— President Trump, UN General Assembly, September 22, 2026
For investors, the oil slide has direct implications for portfolios. Energy stocks — which had been among the best-performing sector this year — sold off Tuesday as crude fell. Bond yields eased slightly on reduced inflation expectations. If the diplomatic track continues and oil falls toward $85, the Fed's November rate decision calculus changes materially: lower energy prices mean lower headline inflation, which reduces pressure to hike again in December. The dot plot showed three more hikes by mid-2027. That number may change if the war ends.
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🏛️ Politics
Trump told the UN he faces a choice between annihilating Iran and making a deal — and predicted the deal comes after the midterms. Kushner and Witkoff met with Iranian officials. Khamenei said it's not negotiation, it's "dictat."
In the most dramatic UN General Assembly speech of his presidency, Trump presented the world with a binary: "Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever was before, maybe one of the greatest in the Middle East or even the world? Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly, never giving them a chance to kill and destroy people and countries again? Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival and no hope of future greatness or generations?" He then answered his own question: he expects Iran to make a deal, but not until after the midterm elections in November, because Tehran is waiting to see how Republicans perform before committing to terms.
The speech contained two other significant moments. Trump called the International Criminal Court "an evil group of people" and urged every member country to immediately resign from what he called "a rogue institution." And he dismissed reports of depleted U.S. munition stockpiles, saying "we have more munitions than we could ever possibly even think of using." After the speech, Trump told reporters that Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff had met with Iran's delegation on the sidelines of UNGA and called it "a very good meeting." A 71% disapproval rating on foreign policy — the worst of either of his presidencies, per CNN — hung over the entire proceeding.
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Negotiating with the United States under the current conditions carries harms for Iran, some of which are irreparable. This is not negotiation. This is dictation.
— Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, September 22, 2026
Khamenei's statement — released just hours before Pezeshkian was due to address the General Assembly today — effectively torpedoed any diplomatic message the Iranian president had prepared. The Supreme Leader has final authority over Iran's foreign policy; Pezeshkian cannot agree to terms Khamenei rejects. Iran International noted the timing as a "slap in the face" to the diplomatic track. Pezeshkian still speaks today. What he says — and whether he deviates from Khamenei's line — will be the most watched UNGA speech of the week.
🌍 Science & World
China expelled two more senior military generals from the Communist Party — the latest step in Xi Jinping's largest purge of the People's Liberation Army in modern history. And seven armed groups in Ethiopia united to topple the government.
China purge
12+ generals
Removed past year
Latest
2 generals
Expelled Monday
Ethiopia
7 rebel groups
Coalition vs Abiy
China expelled two former top military generals from the ruling Chinese Communist Party Monday, accusing them of disloyalty and accepting bribes — the latest step in President Xi Jinping's unprecedented purge of the People's Liberation Army. More than a dozen senior officers have been removed, investigated, or demoted over the past year in what Western defense analysts describe as the largest military shake-up in the PLA since the Cultural Revolution. The two most recent expulsions targeted officers who served in the PLA's Rocket Force, which controls China's nuclear missiles and ballistic missile arsenal — the same branch that was the focus of earlier purge actions.
The scale and targeting of the purge raises serious questions in Western intelligence circles about the reliability of China's military command during a period of elevated global tension. The Rocket Force, in particular, is responsible for China's nuclear deterrent. When the officers responsible for managing those weapons are being systematically investigated and removed, the chain of command becomes less predictable — exactly the opposite of what nuclear stability requires. The purge is being driven by Xi's anti-corruption campaign, but its operational consequences extend beyond any individual general.
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Seven armed rebel groups in Ethiopia announced an alliance to topple the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and form a transitional government. The coalition unites major regional armed movements across six of the country's regions.
— Global Developments, September 22, 2026
In Ethiopia, seven armed opposition groups announced a formal coalition Monday to topple Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government and establish a transitional authority. The coalition unites movements from six of Ethiopia's regions — a geographic breadth that makes it the most significant coordinated challenge to Abiy's government since the Tigray war ended. Ethiopia is the second-most populous country in Africa and sits at the crossroads of the Horn of Africa, a region already strained by Houthi disruption of Red Sea shipping. Instability in Ethiopia would add another dimension to a global security environment that is already managing more simultaneous crises than at any point since the Cold War.
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🏈 Sports
NFL Week 3 delivered the Carolina Panthers destroying Atlanta 34-3, the Chiefs surviving a Sunday Night Football thriller against Indianapolis, and the Steelers getting blown out in New England.
The story of Week 3 was Carolina. The Panthers beat Atlanta 34-3 in what looks like a statement game for a team that started the season being written off. Bryce Young threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns. The Falcons, who entered the week 1-1, looked completely disorganized. Carolina is now 2-1 and generating the kind of early-season buzz that usually signals a team making a real run. The blowout was particularly notable because Atlanta spent the offseason rebuilding its offensive line — and Carolina's defense made it irrelevant.
Sunday Night Football delivered exactly the kind of game NBC wanted. The Chiefs beat Indianapolis 33-30 in a back-and-forth game that came down to Patrick Mahomes engineering a final drive. Kansas City is 3-0 and starting to look like the same machine that has defined the AFC for the past five years. The New England Patriots beat Pittsburgh 20-3 in the most lopsided result of the week — a Steelers team that looked formidable in Week 1 is now 1-2 and searching for answers. The Saints upset Baltimore 24-17 in another surprise. Monday Night Football gave us the Rams beating the Giants 28-6 — New York drops to 1-2.
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Thursday Night Football this week: Green Bay Packers host the Atlanta Falcons. The Packers are 70.7% favorites. Atlanta needs a win badly after that 34-3 embarrassment.
— Dark Bulls
The early 3-0 teams to watch: Kansas City and Carolina. The teams in trouble: Pittsburgh (1-2, getting outscored), Baltimore (dropped one they shouldn't have), and the Giants (back-to-back blowouts). Thursday Night Football this week puts the Falcons in Green Bay — Atlanta needs to respond after the Carolina destruction, but the Packers are installed as heavy favorites.
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⚖️ Crime & Law
Judge Sullivan ruled AG Blanche "failed to comply" with court orders on Epstein files — and his 11am deadline to produce FBI interview notes arrived today with no public sign of compliance.
U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan issued a ruling Wednesday finding that Attorney General Todd Blanche had "failed to comply" with a court rule in the Epstein files litigation — one of two rulings Sullivan issued in the lawsuit brought by journalist Katie Phang, who sued Blanche to force the Justice Department to follow the Epstein Files Transparency Act. The Act, signed by Trump himself in 2025, requires the department to release most of its Epstein records. Sullivan first ruled for Phang in June, finding Blanche had "conceded he is in violation of the Act." Blanche refused to comply anyway. His formal response to the lawsuit, due the next day, was never filed. He never asked for more time.
The 11am ET deadline arrived today for Blanche to submit FBI agents' handwritten notes from interviews with a woman who told federal agents that Trump and Epstein abused her when she was a teenager. The order does not require the notes to be released publicly — only submitted to the court for review. Phang's legal team has asked Sullivan to fine Blanche $1,000 per day until he complies. Sullivan has already referred Blanche to a bar grievance committee for his handling of the case — a pattern, former U.S. Attorney Joyce Vance noted, that mirrors a Florida judge's similar referral. The Justice Department told Politico it "produced all responsive documents" and will appeal. Phang's team called that characterization "just straight up false."
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The Attorney General refuses to review foreign-language documents. He refuses to produce an explanation for his redactions. And he refuses to produce documents he concedes contain no victim information.
— Katie Phang's legal team, filing before Judge Sullivan
The pattern Phang's attorneys have documented is systematic: Blanche missed a June deadline without filing for an extension. He argued in August that he shouldn't have to review foreign-language Epstein documents at all because he told Congress it was "impracticable." He claimed FBI handwritten notes are "substantially similar" to typed summaries already released — a claim Phang's team says is unsupported by any evidence and factually contradicted by the record. Sullivan is described by legal observers as nearing his "breaking point." Blanche remains the attorney general of the United States. The notes remain unproduced. The clock is now measured in dollars per day.
📋 In Brief
Pezeshkian speaks today.
Iran's president addresses the General Assembly today — after Khamenei publicly rejected negotiations as "dictation." Whether Pezeshkian deviates from the Supreme Leader's line is the most watched diplomatic signal of the week. Kushner's meeting with Iranian officials was described as "very good." Brent held below $98.
Thursday Night Football: Packers vs Falcons.
Green Bay hosts Atlanta Thursday night. The Packers are 70.7% favorites. Atlanta needs to respond after the 34-3 Carolina blowout. Green Bay is 1-2 after losing to the Saints last week and needs a home win.
Blanche and the $1,000 clock.
The 11am ET deadline passed today. If Judge Sullivan grants the $1,000-per-day fine motion, it would be the first time a sitting U.S. attorney general has been subject to a contempt-based financial penalty from a federal court.
— David
Dark Bulls
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