The Fed just hiked rates for the first time in three years and it is not done
The Daily Digest
Dark Bulls
Thursday · September 17, 2026
The Fed hiked rates to 3.75-4% — the first increase in three years — and the dot plot now shows three more hikes by mid-2027. Sweden's left bloc won by a single seat. The EU invited Canada to become its first associate member. Leon Black was referred to the DOJ for contempt over the Epstein investigation.
Thursday. Yesterday was the biggest single day in American monetary policy since 2023 — the Fed moved, unanimously, and the dot plot told markets this is the beginning of something, not a one-off. Sweden ended a week of uncertainty with the closest election in the country's modern history: the left bloc won by one seat. The EU made an extraordinary offer to Canada. And Congress sent the Leon Black contempt case to an attorney general who himself is under court order to stop withholding Epstein files. Let's get into it.
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📈 Money & Markets
The Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4% yesterday — the first hike in three years — and the dot plot now shows three more increases by mid-2027. Markets rose then fell during Warsh's press conference.
Market Pulse · Sept 17, 2026
3.75-4%
▲ Fed Funds
First hike since 2023
3
▲ More hikes
Dot plot by mid-2027
4.72%
▲ 2yr Treasury
Highest since 2024
$108
▲ Brent Crude
Pipeline still offline
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4% Wednesday — the first increase since July 2023. The vote was unanimous, a signal of how successfully Chair Kevin Warsh has built consensus on the committee he inherited. Markets initially rose on the decision, interpreting the unanimity as a sign of stability, then turned lower during Warsh's press conference as the implications of the dot plot set in.
The dot plot — the Fed's projection of where each committee member expects rates to go — showed eight officials pointing to at least one more hike this year, likely at the December meeting. Looking further out, three additional hikes are projected by mid-2027, which would bring the Fed funds rate to 4.5%-4.75%. Investors now anticipate three additional rate hikes by mid-2027. The 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to Fed policy expectations, climbed to 4.72% — its highest since 2024.
"
The Fed raised rates today, but the bond market got there first. In many ways, the bond market has been leading the Fed rather than the other way around.
— Karen Manna, fixed income strategist, Federated Hermes
Warsh framed the hike as good news for working Americans, saying price stability helps workers keep real take-home pay increases. For households carrying variable-rate debt — credit cards, home equity lines, adjustable mortgages — the practical math is immediate. Several of the biggest banks announced Wednesday they are already passing the hike along, raising the base rate that credit cards are built on. The next FOMC meeting is October 27-28, with the decision on October 28.
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Put another way… That turns $100 into $40,000… $500 into $200,000… And a tiny stake of $1,000 into almost half a million dollars.
But unless you invested in Starbucks back in 1992, that opportunity is already gone.
Where could coffee's next major growth story come from?
The global coffee market is projected to reach approximately $380 billion by 2033. And its next breakout company may not be built around thousands of cafés. It may begin with the farms…
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🏛️ Politics
Sweden's left bloc won by a single seat — 175 to 174 — in the closest election in the country's modern history. Magdalena Andersson returns as prime minister.
Sweden's centre-left opposition defeated the incumbent right-wing governing bloc by the slimmest of margins, public broadcaster SVT confirmed Wednesday after 99% of votes had been counted. Only 26,169 votes separated the two blocs. The final seat allocation gives Andersson's four-party coalition 175 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag to 174 for the right — a one-seat majority, the narrowest possible parliamentary win. The Sweden Democrats, the far-right anti-immigration party that had been the defining force in Swedish politics for a decade, dropped from 20.5% in 2022 to 17.5% — losing 11 seats and slipping from second to third place nationally.
For the United States, the Swedish result is diplomatically meaningful. Andersson's Social Democrats are more supportive of European strategic autonomy and more skeptical of unrestricted American military operations in the Gulf than the outgoing Kristersson government. Sweden joined NATO only in March 2024, and its new government's posture toward the alliance — and toward the Iran war — will be shaped by a centre-left coalition that includes the Green Party and the Left Party, neither of which has been enthusiastic about military operations outside the European theater.
"
The centre-left coalition has secured a one-seat majority over the right-wing bloc that had been in power since 2022. The Sweden Democrats had hoped to enter government for the first time. Instead, their support fell three percentage points.
— ABC News Australia, September 17, 2026
Separately, Vice President JD Vance said Wednesday that the Iran war is set to enter a "new phase," though he provided no specifics. The White House has not elaborated. The statement came the same day CENTCOM confirmed it struck two Iranian boats attempting to seize a U.S. drone ship in the Gulf — the third such incident in two weeks. The war began February 28. It is now in its seventh month with no formal peace talks underway and a CBO-estimated cost of $38 billion through August 1.
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Right now, you can buy a dollar's worth of gold for about 36 cents.
That sounds impossible. Here's how it's real.
The major gold miners are throwing off record cash flow — even after gold's recent pullback. The four largest have never had this much free cash on hand. Ever. At today's gold price, they're running margins as high as 75% — the most profitable they have ever been.
Which hands them a problem.
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When a major gold miner makes record profits, it does one of two things: hand the cash back to shareholders, or buy the best junior mining assets to secure future production.
And here's the piece the market is missing:
The best junior assets are still priced as if gold were stuck at $1,800 an ounce — not north of $4,000, where it trades today.
So the majors are staring at their own future production shrinking, sitting on record cash, looking at top-tier junior assets trading at a fraction of what that gold is worth at today's price.
They don't have a choice. They buy — or their output keeps shrinking until they're out of business.
That's how you buy a dollar of gold for 36 cents: you own the junior before the major is forced to pay up for it.
The gap between what these assets are worth and what they trade for has a name. I call it the Golden Anomaly. It only appears early in a gold bull market, and it closes fast — usually the moment the majors start writing cheques.
So you can pay full price after the gap closes… Or buy the dollar for 36 cents while the Anomaly still exists.
My name is Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT, and it's why Porter Stansberry recently called me: "THE most knowledgeable gold investor in the world."
Go here to see my Golden Anomaly portfolio — and the three names next on the majors' shopping list.
Best,
Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT
Lead Analyst and Founder, Golden Portfolio
That sounds impossible. Here's how it's real.
The major gold miners are throwing off record cash flow — even after gold's recent pullback. The four largest have never had this much free cash on hand. Ever. At today's gold price, they're running margins as high as 75% — the most profitable they have ever been.
Which hands them a problem.
Go here to see the problem — and why the majors are about to go on a shopping spree for the ages.
When a major gold miner makes record profits, it does one of two things: hand the cash back to shareholders, or buy the best junior mining assets to secure future production.
And here's the piece the market is missing:
The best junior assets are still priced as if gold were stuck at $1,800 an ounce — not north of $4,000, where it trades today.
So the majors are staring at their own future production shrinking, sitting on record cash, looking at top-tier junior assets trading at a fraction of what that gold is worth at today's price.
They don't have a choice. They buy — or their output keeps shrinking until they're out of business.
That's how you buy a dollar of gold for 36 cents: you own the junior before the major is forced to pay up for it.
The gap between what these assets are worth and what they trade for has a name. I call it the Golden Anomaly. It only appears early in a gold bull market, and it closes fast — usually the moment the majors start writing cheques.
So you can pay full price after the gap closes… Or buy the dollar for 36 cents while the Anomaly still exists.
My name is Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT, and it's why Porter Stansberry recently called me: "THE most knowledgeable gold investor in the world."
Go here to see my Golden Anomaly portfolio — and the three names next on the majors' shopping list.
Best,
Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT
Lead Analyst and Founder, Golden Portfolio
🌍 Science & World
The EU invited Canada to become its first associate member — and the House passed sweeping new sanctions against Russia and Iran in a 262-159 bipartisan vote.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made an extraordinary offer to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney during her State of the European Union address in Strasbourg Wednesday, proposing that Canada become the European Union's first-ever associate member. "We want to bring the relationship with Canada to the highest level possible," von der Leyen said, shaking hands and posing for photos with Carney. "So I would like to work with you on opening the door for Canada to being the first associate member of the European Union." She said the new partnership would build on their existing free-trade agreement on everything from critical minerals to artificial intelligence and cybersecurity.
The EU-Canada proposal is partly a response to Trump-era tensions over trade and security commitments. Canada has been seeking closer ties with European partners since the U.S. imposed new tariffs and questioned the value of NATO commitments. Associate membership — a status that has never previously existed in the EU's legal framework — would require treaty changes and unanimous approval from all 27 EU member states, making it a long-term project rather than an immediate reality. But the symbolic weight of the offer, made in the EU parliament with Carney present, was unmistakable.
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We want to bring the relationship with Canada to the highest level possible — so I would like to work with you on opening the door for Canada to being the first associate member of the European Union.
— European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Strasbourg, September 16, 2026
Separately, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 in a 262-159 vote Wednesday. The legislation targets Russian financial institutions, political figures, oligarchs, and the maritime shadow fleet used to bypass oil export restrictions. It authorizes the executive branch to place tariffs of up to 100% on major importers of Russian oil and gas, or nations assisting in sanctions evasion. The bill now moves to the Senate, where its fate is uncertain.
🧠 Health & Life · 50+
Mitch McConnell returned to the Senate after a three-month health absence — and the Fed's rate hike is already raising the cost of every variable-rate loan you carry.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell returned to work Wednesday after a three-month health absence, his longest yet. McConnell, 84, has had a series of health episodes over the past two years — including a freeze episode at a press conference in 2023 that was caught on camera and two falls requiring medical attention. His return was low-key; he did not speak to reporters but was photographed entering the Capitol. His office said he is "feeling well" and intends to complete his term, which runs through January 2027. He has not announced whether he plans to seek re-election.
The Fed's rate hike yesterday has more immediate implications for Americans over 50 than for any other demographic group. The reason is debt structure. People in their 50s and 60s are more likely to carry home equity lines of credit, adjustable-rate mortgages, and variable-rate credit card balances than any other age group — and all of these reprice upward when the Fed moves. A $50,000 home equity line at a typical variable rate will cost approximately $125 more per month after Wednesday's 25-basis-point hike. The major banks confirmed Wednesday they are already passing the increase along.
New Fed rate
3.75-4.00%
Up from 3.50-3.75%
Credit cards
Rising now
Banks already moving
Next hike
Dec 8-9
Next FOMC: Oct 27-28
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When they get their wages, they can put their head above water and deliver real take-home pay increases. Price stability is good for everyone — but it's especially good for the least well-off Americans who don't own financial assets or have home equity built up.
— Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, press conference, September 16, 2026
For Americans with savings in high-yield accounts or money market funds, the hike is good news — yields will rise in step. For Americans carrying debt, the calculation runs the other way. The smartest moves right now for anyone in their 50s or 60s: lock in fixed rates on any loans you can refinance, pay down variable-rate balances before the next hike in December, and review your bond portfolio, since rising rates push bond prices down. The next FOMC meeting is October 27-28.
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⚖️ Crime & Law
Congress unanimously referred Leon Black to the DOJ for contempt over the Epstein investigation — and a judge warned AG Todd Blanche he could be next.
Congress sent its first Epstein contempt case to Donald Trump's Attorney General Wednesday, the same day a federal judge warned Blanche he could be next. Billionaire investor Leon Black paid Jeffrey Epstein more than $170 million between 2012 and 2017. He walked out of a closed-door congressional interview in June and skipped the deposition where members planned to ask what he paid for. Every Republican and Democrat in the House voted to ask the Justice Department to prosecute him — a unanimous bipartisan referral that is extraordinary in the current political environment.
The same day, U.S. District Judge Beryl Howell ruled that AG Todd Blanche is still withholding files the law requires him to release. Blanche has until September 24 to turn over FBI agents' handwritten notes from interviews conducted as part of the Epstein investigation — including an interview with a woman who told agents that Trump and Epstein abused her when she was a girl. Howell also ordered Blanche to prove that the names his department has blacked out from released documents belong to actual victims, as the department has claimed. The judge warned that Blanche himself could face contempt proceedings if the September 24 deadline is not met.
"
Congress sent its first Epstein contempt case to Donald Trump's Attorney General on the day a judge warned he could be next.
— GovBrief, September 17, 2026
The Leon Black contempt referral puts the Trump Justice Department in an impossible position. Blanche, who served as Trump's personal defense attorney before becoming AG, is being asked to prosecute a case that may expand to include allegations directly involving his former client. The September 24 deadline for the FBI interview notes is the most immediate pressure point. If Blanche misses it, Judge Howell has signaled she is prepared to hold the attorney general of the United States in contempt of court.
📋 In Brief
Next Fed meeting: October 27-28.
The FOMC's next decision comes October 28. Eight of the 19 officials who submit dot plot projections see at least one more hike this year — likely December 8-9. Markets currently price the December hike at about 60%. Investors now anticipate three total additional hikes by mid-2027.
Blanche deadline: September 24.
AG Todd Blanche has until September 24 to produce FBI handwritten notes from Epstein-related interviews and prove that redacted names belong to victims. Judge Howell has signaled she will pursue contempt proceedings against Blanche personally if the deadline is missed.
Retail sales up in August.
The Commerce Department reported retail sales increased in August, suggesting consumer spending has held up despite elevated inflation. Economists warn the strength may not persist as higher interest rates and energy costs eat into household budgets heading into the fall.
— David
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