The Fed just got everything it needed to raise rates next week.
Friday · September 11, 2026
The Daily Digest
Dark Bulls
CPI came in at 3.4% — core ran hotter than expected, and September hike odds jumped to 90%. Today is the 25th anniversary of 9/11. Iran signaled it's open to talks. Sabalenka and Rybakina are in Saturday's women's final. And Shelton faces Tiafoe today.
A Friday that carries more weight than most. CPI dropped at 8:30 — 3.4% headline, but core came in 0.1 point hotter than expected on a monthly basis, and the Fed hike next Wednesday is now priced at 90%. Today is September 11 — 25 years since the attacks that killed 2,983 people. Iran said it's ready for talks but attached conditions. Sabalenka dominated Pegula; Rybakina came back to beat Gauff. The all-American men's semifinal is today. Let's get into it.
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If approved, millions of Americans could soon gain access to physical gold in their 401(k)s — potentially by 2027.
Big players are already making moves:
- BlackRock just announced new funds to meet gold demand.
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📈 Money & Markets
The August CPI came in at 3.4% — in line with estimates, but core inflation ran hotter than expected, and the Fed's September hike odds just jumped to 90%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, putting the 12-month increase at 3.4% — matching the Dow Jones consensus and unchanged from July. Gasoline was the single biggest driver of the monthly increase, rising 3.9% and accounting for over a third of the total move. Energy services rose 0.5%. Food at home increased 0.2%.
The detail that moved markets was core CPI — stripping out volatile food and energy, core posted a 0.3% monthly gain, or 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast. The core annual rate came in at 2.4%, in line with the estimate. That monthly core acceleration, small as it is in isolation, gave the Federal Reserve exactly the justification Warsh needs to move next week.
"Chair Warsh and others signaled that interest rates can remain on hold only if disinflation continues — and today's August report did not deliver that." — Kathy Bostjancic, Chief Economist, Nationwide
— Nationwide Financial, September 11, 2026
Traders responded to the numbers by ramping up bets on a quarter-point hike. Odds jumped to about 90% per CME Group's FedWatch tracker. The Fed funds rate is currently 3.5%-3.75%, where it has been all of 2026. That range will almost certainly be 3.75%-4.0% by Wednesday, September 17.
What today's report captured is August oil prices — before Tuesday's tanker strikes, before Wednesday's Iranian missile retaliation against the Jordan base, before this week's $99-$101 Brent trading range. September's CPI, due in October, will show what $100 oil actually does to the consumer price level. The Iran war and the rate cycle are now directly connected.
CPI August 2026 · Key Numbers
3.4%
Headline CPI (year-over-year)
+3.9%
Gasoline (monthly, biggest driver)
90%
Sept hike odds (CME FedWatch)
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Forget about AI…
Forget about nuclear energy, quantum computing and crypto.
This dwarfs all of it… combined.
Here's the story…
President Trump just signed this bill into law, forcing the immediate replacement of ALL the plumbing under our $382 trillion financial system.
Just like the plumbing under your house moves water, there's plumbing under our economy that moves money. And right now America's "financial plumbing" is 50 years old.
It's slow, it's clunky and it breaks all the time…
However, thanks to a breakthrough new technology that BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is calling "the next major evolution in market infrastructure", there's finally a replacement…
Insiders are calling it The New American Money Grid.
And thanks to this legal mandate that just left President Trump's Desk…
Every financial asset in America MUST be moved onto this New American Money Grid by April 2027.
And once it's in place, every transaction on the New American Money Grid will burn a scarce "Digital Fuel" and that's what this new interview is about.
Getting you in on the ground floor of this little-known asset set to potentially EXPLODE as the trillions starts moving in the coming weeks.
Unfortunately major institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity and Grayscale are already backing up the truck, quietly positioning themselves before the news goes mainstream.
So you don't have long to act.
That's why we brought in legendary tech investor Andy Howard to provide the full details.
🏛️ Politics
Today is September 11, 2026 — the 25th anniversary of the attacks that killed 2,983 people and changed everything that came after.
Twenty-five years ago this morning, four hijacked commercial aircraft became weapons. Two struck the World Trade Center's North and South Towers. One struck the Pentagon. One — United Flight 93 — went down in a field near Shanksville, Pennsylvania, brought down by passengers who stormed the cockpit after learning what had happened in New York and Washington. The attacks killed 2,977 people that day. Hundreds more have died in the years since from 9/11-related illnesses. The ceremonies today mark a quarter century since the morning that divided American history into before and after.
At the National September 11 Memorial in Lower Manhattan, families of victims are gathering this morning for the private ceremony that has taken place each year since 2002. The reading of names — 2,983 in all, including those killed in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing — began at 8:40 a.m. and continues through the afternoon. Vice President JD Vance is attending the New York observance alongside former presidents, while other administration officials are at the ceremony in Shanksville, Pennsylvania.
"On that fateful day, savage monsters attacked the very symbols of our civilization. But out of that day's tragedy came something no one expected — a reaffirmation of everything we hold most dear." — President Trump
— Patriot Day 2026
President Trump is forgoing Ground Zero for the 25th anniversary to instead deliver remarks at the Pentagon. The National September 11 Memorial and Museum has prevented politicians from speaking at the Ground Zero ceremony since 2012. Trump spoke at the Pentagon last year, where he honored the victims and announced Charlie Kirk's posthumous Presidential Medal of Freedom.
The Tunnel to Towers Foundation is carrying a steel beam cut from the South Tower through the Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel today — retracing the path of firefighter Stephen Siller, who ran that tunnel on the morning of September 11, 2001, equipment on his back, and gave his life trying to reach the towers. The Tribute in Light — two columns of blue-white light rising above Lower Manhattan — illuminates the sky tonight and tomorrow. For 25 years, those beams have served as the most visible symbol of a city that rebuilt.
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And exclusive third-party rights involving Juan Valdez roasted-coffee products across U.S. and Canadian retail and institutional channels.
This is not an investment in a café concept hoping to open its first location.
It is an opportunity to own shares in a vertically integrated coffee company already growing, processing, roasting and distributing Colombian coffee at scale.
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Until recently, investments like this were often reserved for venture funds and wealthy accredited investors.
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Timelines are subject to change. Listing on the NASDAQ is contingent upon necessary approvals, and reserving a ticker symbol does not guarantee a company's public listing.
🌍 Science & World
Iran signaled it's open to talks — conditionally. Trump, from Dallas: "They'll deal."
After weeks of escalating military strikes, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said Wednesday that Iran is "ready for negotiations" to end the conflict — but only if the United States stops striking Iranian oil tankers and lifts what Tehran describes as an illegal naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi separately told Al Jazeera that Iran has "never been opposed to diplomacy" and that the path to de-escalation runs through American restraint, not Iranian concessions. The statements were the most explicit diplomatic signals from Tehran since the war began February 28.
The conditions Iran attached to its offer are significant. The U.S. has destroyed 10 Iranian crude oil tankers in the past week — five Sunday, five more Tuesday. CENTCOM has described the campaign as a deliberate effort to destroy Iran's "shadow fleet," the network of tankers that fund IRGC operations. Iran demanding the U.S. stop the tanker campaign as a precondition for talks is asking Washington to give up its most effective economic pressure tool before negotiations even begin.
"They'll deal. They want to deal. Everyone wants to deal with us. We're the best at deals." — President Trump, departing Dallas Thursday afternoon.
— President Trump
Trump offered no specifics. A White House official said U.S. negotiating teams led by Steve Witkoff remain in contact with Omani intermediaries, who have served as the back-channel between Washington and Tehran throughout the conflict. The next formal contact between U.S. and Iranian representatives, through Omani intermediaries, is expected this weekend. Whether the tanker campaign pauses — or continues — in the days before those talks will signal Washington's actual negotiating posture more clearly than any statement.
🧠 Health & Life · 50+
CPI at 3.4%, core at 2.4% — here's what today's numbers mean for Social Security, your savings, and the rate hike coming next Wednesday.
This morning's report is the number that will set the Federal Reserve's course for the next six weeks. A 90% probability of a September hike is effectively a certainty in financial market terms — the remaining 10% accounts for tail risks, not genuine uncertainty. What today's CPI tells us is that inflation is not moving fast enough in the right direction for the Fed to hold.
The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 is calculated using average CPI from July, August, and September 2026 compared to the same three months of 2025. July and August are now in — both at 3.4%. With energy prices rising further since the measurement period ended, the 2027 COLA is tracking to be meaningful, likely in the 3.0-3.5% range pending September's data. A higher COLA is a lagging acknowledgment that the inflation eating into savings has already happened.
"The gasoline component drove this month's increase — but August oil prices predate this week's tanker strikes and $100+ Brent. September's CPI will show what $100 oil actually does to the consumer price level."
— Dark Bulls
For people over 50 on fixed or semi-fixed income, the immediate practical question is whether to lock in yields on CDs or Treasuries before the Fed hike next week. A 25-basis-point hike will push short-term yields slightly higher. A 5-year Treasury currently yielding around 4.3-4.4% is already offering returns competitive with equity market historical averages. If the Fed hikes again in November — which futures markets are now pricing at about 55% probability — those yields go higher still. Anyone carrying a variable-rate mortgage or home equity line should review their exposure before Wednesday's decision.
🏀 Sports
The women's finalists are set — Sabalenka and Rybakina. The men's semifinal is today: Shelton versus Tiafoe.
Thursday night at Arthur Ashe gave us two results that were cleaner than anyone had any right to expect. No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka advanced to another US Open final with a dominant performance against No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula, 7-5, 6-2. Pegula had no answers for Sabalenka's power — the top seed faced and saved just one break point in the entire match. Pegula hung in through the first 11 games, but the dam broke in the 12th when Sabalenka served out the set, then broke Pegula in two of her four service games in the second.
The second women's semi was less straightforward. Coco Gauff cruised through the first set against Elena Rybakina, winning 6-3 with a serve and forehand both firing. Then the second set began and everything changed — Rybakina took control, Gauff's serve grew shaky, her forehand fell apart, and she piled up 25 unforced errors in the second and third sets. Rybakina won 3-6, 6-4, 6-4. Saturday's women's final is Sabalenka versus Rybakina — the world No. 1 against the player who took that ranking from her just by reaching the final.
"Both survived extraordinary five-set quarterfinals, both thrive in front of the New York crowd, and both believe this could be the tournament that changes the course of their careers." — on Shelton vs. Tiafoe today
— US Open men's semifinal preview
Today's all-American men's semifinal — Shelton versus Tiafoe — guarantees one of them in Sunday's final, ending American men's tennis's 23-year Grand Slam drought that dates to Andy Roddick here in 2003. Shelton leads their head-to-head 3-2. He's the bigger server, the more aggressive player. Tiafoe is more versatile, better in long rallies, and proved he can come back from two sets down. The second men's semi is Zverev versus Karen Khachanov. Whoever wins today will play for a Grand Slam title on Sunday.
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Would you like to get a small slice of the $1.43 billion that gets spent on jet fuel every day?
Because that's exactly what my friend Tim figured out how to do.
He's not a Saudi prince.
He was an HVAC technician from rural Ohio who was two months behind on his mortgage.
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And as weird as it sounds…
All he had to do was connect an airline with an oil refinery with a good price on fuel….
Then collect a commission.
Keep in mind…
- He had no special connections.
- No licenses or credentials
Just about an hour a day and a system that showed him how to do it.
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P.S. It's no secret that this "bizarre" income strategy sounds far fetched to ordinary folks like you and I…
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📋 In Brief
Fed meeting next week.
The FOMC meets September 15-16 and announces its decision Wednesday, September 17 at 2 p.m. ET. With hike odds at 90%, the decision itself is nearly certain. What markets will be watching is the dot plot — the Fed's projection of where rates go from here — and Warsh's press conference language about whether this is a one-and-done or the beginning of a new hike cycle. Futures are currently pricing about 55% odds of a November hike as well.
Iran talks through Oman.
U.S. and Iranian negotiating teams are expected to make contact this weekend through Omani intermediaries. The substantive question is whether the U.S. will agree to any restraint on tanker strikes as a precondition for formal talks. Witkoff is reportedly involved in the Oman channel. Whether the tanker campaign pauses before those talks will signal Washington's actual posture more clearly than any statement.
Men's final Sunday.
The US Open men's final is Sunday, September 13. An American man is guaranteed to be in it. Women's final is tomorrow, Saturday, September 12: Sabalenka vs. Rybakina. If Shelton wins today and wins Sunday, he becomes the first American man to win a Grand Slam since Roddick here in 2003. Same if Tiafoe does it.
— David
Dark Bulls
Published Monday–Friday
