The Fed hikes today and the Iran war just got a $38 billion price tag
The Daily Digest
Dark Bulls
Wednesday · September 16, 2026
The Fed announces its rate decision today at 2pm ET. The Iran war has cost $38 billion and is burning $3 billion a month. The Kennedy Center is closed after a judge blocked Trump's name for the second time. An NBC News helicopter crashed in Los Angeles, killing three people.
Wednesday. The Fed announces today — the first rate decision in months that actually matters. The Iran war price tag is now official: $38 billion through August 1, with more to come. The Kennedy Center is dark after a judge and a board meeting produced a collision of law and politics that left one of America's iconic cultural institutions closed indefinitely. And a news helicopter fell from the sky in Los Angeles on Tuesday night, killing the journalist and pilot aboard along with a pedestrian below. Let's get into it.
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📈 Money & Markets
The Fed announces its rate decision today at 2pm ET — and the CBO just confirmed the Iran war has cost $38 billion with no end in sight.
Market Pulse · Sept 16, 2026
$108
▲ Brent Crude
4-month high
$38B
▼ War Cost
CBO through Aug 1
2pm ET
◆ Fed Decision
Today · Warsh speaks
$4.36
▲ Avg. Gas
New 2026 high
The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision today at 2 p.m. ET — the first hike since 2023 is priced at roughly 88% by CME FedWatch. Chair Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference immediately after. What the market actually wants from today is not the decision itself, which is nearly certain, but the dot plot and Warsh's language on November. A second hike before year-end is currently priced at about 55%. That number will move sharply based on what Warsh says this afternoon.
The Congressional Budget Office released its assessment of the Iran war's cost on Tuesday: $38 billion through August 1, with an estimated additional $2 billion to $3 billion per month depending on the intensity of the conflict. The largest single component was munitions replacement — $21.7 billion — including $13.1 billion for missile interceptors alone. The CBO also estimated that the war contributed 2.3 percentage points to inflation in the second quarter of 2026, pushing headline inflation from roughly 3% to 5.3%. That inflation impact, the report said, is expected to persist into the first quarter of 2027.
"
The war is expected to contribute to inflation into the first quarter of 2027 — and more than 40% of the inflation in personal consumption expenditures in Q2 2026 was directly tied to higher energy costs from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
— Congressional Budget Office, September 15, 2026
For Americans carrying variable-rate debt — home equity lines, adjustable mortgages, credit card balances — today's decision at 2pm matters directly. A 25-basis-point hike brings the Fed funds rate to 3.75%-4.0%. Gas nationally averaged $4.36 Wednesday according to AAA, a new high for 2026. Brent crude held at $108 with the East-West pipeline still offline. The combination of a war-driven energy shock and a Fed that is raising rates into that environment is the defining economic story of the fall.
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🏛️ Politics
The Kennedy Center is closed — a judge blocked Trump's name for the second time, and the board voted to shut it down within hours, with $257 million in repairs now on hold.
The Kennedy Center's board of directors voted Tuesday to close most of the iconic performing arts venue just hours after U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper blocked the institution from returning President Trump's name to the building for the second time. "Simply put, Defendants cannot install memorials for President Trump or anyone or anything else at the Kennedy Center without Congress's blessing," Cooper wrote in his order. The Justice Department immediately appealed the ruling to the D.C. Circuit.
Trump responded on Truth Social, saying the closure was for "safety reasons" and that the $257 million in renovation funds Congress has already allocated would not be spent unless the courts permitted his name to go back on the building. "The closing will take place immediately, however, the Renovation and Reconstruction, which is a very large and complex job, cannot begin until such time as the D.C. Circuit rules on the Board's approved name," Trump wrote. Lawyers for the board warned that without renovations, the building could become an "unsafe, decrepit structure" that may ultimately need to be demolished.
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Simply put, Defendants cannot install memorials for President Trump or anyone or anything else at the Kennedy Center without Congress's blessing.
— U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper, September 15, 2026
The Kennedy Center has been at the center of a months-long legal and political battle. Trump added his name to the building's facade alongside John F. Kennedy's earlier this year, before Cooper ordered the name removed in May after ruling it was added illegally. Congress gave the Kennedy Center its name, and only Congress can change it. The center will be closed to visitors indefinitely. Separately, the House of Representatives voted Tuesday for the third time to direct Trump to end the Iran war or seek explicit congressional authorization to continue it. Seven Republicans joined Democrats in supporting the resolution, which does not carry the force of law but signals growing fractures in Republican unity on the war as midterms approach.
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🌍 Science & World
The House voted for the third time to end the Iran war — seven Republicans crossed the aisle — as CENTCOM confirmed it destroyed two Iranian boats attempting to seize a drone ship.
House vote
3rd time
7 GOP defections
War cost
$38B+
$3B/month ongoing
Month 7
No end in sight
Started Feb 28, 2026
The U.S. House of Representatives voted Tuesday for a third time to direct President Trump to end the Iran war or seek explicit congressional authorization to continue it. Seven Republicans joined Democrats in supporting the resolution. The resolution does not carry the force of law — it is a concurrent resolution, not legislation — but three successive House votes on war authorization, each with Republican defections, is a meaningful signal of eroding support in the chamber Republicans currently control. The votes are also a preview of midterm positioning: Republican incumbents in competitive districts are being forced to take repeated public positions on a war that has driven gas to $4.36 and cost $38 billion in seven months.
CENTCOM confirmed Tuesday that U.S. military forces struck and destroyed two small Iranian boats that were attempting to steal a drone ship in waters off Iran. Iranian state media had reported Monday that a pair of fishing boats came under attack in Hormozgan province. The CENTCOM account and the Iranian account differ in their characterization of the vessels — CENTCOM called them "small Iranian boats" engaged in theft of U.S. military equipment; Iran called them fishing boats under attack without provocation. The incident is the latest in a series of small-scale naval confrontations that have characterized the conflict since the ceasefire-that-wasn't in August.
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Donald Trump and Republicans have spent years telling Americans that we cannot afford to help families here at home — but apparently they can find tens of billions of dollars, and potentially much more, for a reckless war that is leaving Americans to pay the price.
— Rep. Brendan Boyle, ranking member, House Budget Committee
The White House has requested $87.6 billion in supplemental war funding from Congress. That request, combined with the CBO's $38 billion cost estimate and the ongoing $2-3 billion monthly burn rate, puts the total potential price tag of the Iran war well above $125 billion if the conflict extends through the end of 2026. The war started February 28. It is now in its seventh month. There are no formal peace talks underway.
🧠 Health & Life · 50+
An NBC News helicopter crashed in Los Angeles on Tuesday night while covering a bus accident, killing the journalist, the pilot, and a person on the ground.
A Eurocopter AS350 B2 operating as NBC4 Los Angeles' NewsChopper4 crashed shortly before 7 p.m. Tuesday in a commercial parking lot in the Chatsworth neighborhood of the San Fernando Valley, killing three people and injuring two others. The helicopter, operated by Angel City Air for NBC4 and Telemundo 52, was covering a fatal bus collision in downtown Los Angeles when it lost altitude and went down. Video recorded inside the helicopter moments before impact includes sounds of the engine losing power and a warning alarm indicating the main rotor blades were slowing.
The two victims aboard the helicopter were identified as Eliana Moreno, an aerial photojournalist who had reported for NBC4 and Telemundo 52 since joining Angel City Air in 2010, and pilot George Marciniw, a 1974 graduate of Burbank High School who had been flying in Southern California for decades. Moreno and Marciniw began flying together in 2023. A third victim, a pedestrian in the parking lot below, has not yet been publicly identified. Two additional people were hospitalized with injuries.
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Losing five Angelenos is very painful. And I know this community of Chatsworth, hit hard, will be grieving for some time.
— Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, press conference, September 15, 2026
The National Transportation Safety Board is leading the investigation; NTSB investigators arrived at the scene Wednesday morning. The FAA is also involved. The cause of the crash is unknown. Mayor Karen Bass noted the total death toll from Tuesday's two incidents — the bus collision that NewsChopper4 was dispatched to cover, and the helicopter crash itself — was five people. NBC4 and Telemundo 52 said in a statement they are "deeply saddened" and extended "heartfelt condolences to the families, friends and colleagues of those who lost their lives." There have been at least eight fatal crashes involving news helicopters in the United States since 2007.
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📋 In Brief
Sweden result tonight.
Final postal and overseas ballots are being counted today. The current 176-173 left bloc lead could still flip. The 2022 Swedish election saw exit polls predict a left victory that ultimately went to the right. Final official result expected Wednesday evening Stockholm time.
NATO: Russia testing the alliance.
EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas said Wednesday that a Russian warship fired flares at a Danish helicopter and NATO jets had to shoot down a drone over Lithuania. "Russia is testing the resolve of the alliance," Kallas said in Brussels.
NTSB at Chatsworth crash site.
NTSB investigators arrived Wednesday morning. The FAA and NTSB are jointly investigating. The cause of the crash remains unknown. Video from inside the helicopter suggests engine power loss before impact. The third victim — a pedestrian in the parking lot — has not yet been publicly identified.
— David
Dark Bulls
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